Grant Recipient Bettina Koelle’s Climate Forecasting Game

Bettina Koelle

START/Red Cross Red Crescent Grant recipient, Bettina Koelle co-designed and facilitated a game with three women from the Heiveld Co-operative to explore the use of seasonal forecasts with small-scale farmers of Heiveld Co-operative. The co-operative works to produce and market rooibos tea at fair prices and to create a better life for small-scale farmers and other members of the community. Bettina and her team presented a seasonal forecast game that explores the seasonal forecasts given in percentages of above average and below average. For more information visit Indigo development & change, the organization supporting the climate change workshop at: www.indigo-dc.org and Heiveld Co-operative, the organization of the small-scale farmers at www.heiveld.co.za. Bettina Koelle is a recipient of a climate risk management grant for graduate students, for more information about this program visit:
http://start.org/programs/grad-student-climate-risk-mgmt

The Seasonal Forecast Game

The aim was to explore the seasonal forecasts given in percentages of above average and below average with farmers.




The seasonal forecast is in the middle. Each segment is 10%. This forecast: 20% likelihood that it will be drier, 40% likelihood that it is going to be wetter.










The forecast changes each round (year).














Farmers have to choose which side they want to be on (drier or wetter) and pay one token for the preparation for the season.


















The spinner is then turned and decides the actual weather for the year…


















The winners of the round…




















The forecast changes again…




















Discussing the merits of taking risks…













Until most players are bankrupt.